Cox Automotive Releases July New Car Sales Forecast

The Cox Automotive forecast indicates that U.S. July new-vehicle sales will show some recovery from the widespread software outage that impacted sales and reporting last month. In July, the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), or sales pace, is expected to rise to 16.0 million, a rebound from last month’s surprisingly low 15.3 million level.

Last month, sales pace had been forecast to finish much higher, but disruptions in dealership point-of-sale software programs at the end of June prevented sales from being completed and reported. Those sales will likely be captured in this month’s final tallies and will help push the pace above the market’s 15.5 million average over the last 18 months.

“July new-vehicle sales are expected to finish within the range of 15-16 million, as has been consistent over the last year. July sales will likely include some sales that were delayed from June. How much is unknown, tens of thousands of vehicles may have been affected. Fleet sales are also unknown but will be an important factor in July’s result,” said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive.

According to Cox Automotive’s Kelley Blue Book sales estimates, July sales volume is expected to fall to 1.29 million, down 1.3% from last year and down 3% from last month. 

Through the first half of 2024, monthly new-vehicle sales volume has averaged 1.31 million units. Total new-vehicle sales for calendar year 2024 are forecast by Cox Automotive to reach 15.7 million, an increase from 2023 and the best year since 2019.