AASA Forecast: U.S. Aftermarket to Continue Steady Growth Through 2021

The U.S. automotive aftermarket is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.4 percent through 2021, according to the forecast formulated by two industry associations. The Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association (AASA) and the Auto Care Association (ACA) jointly produced the 2018 Joint Channel Forecast Model.

The forecast predicts that the total aftermarket sales will grow from $286 billion in 2017 to $327 billion in 2021, a nearly $41 billion increase.

“The Joint Channel Forecast shows the continued strength of key aftermarket drivers and the impact of the confident consumers, buoyed by a strong job market and lower personal tax rates,” said Bill Long, president and chief operating officer of AASA. “It also shows influences driving evolution in the aftermarket: new and emerging technologies, changes in the distribution model and changes in consumers’ expectations for mobility. We are an industry facing a lot of change, but we believe we have the people in the independent aftermarket with the leadership, vision and entrepreneurial spirit to enable us to grow and thrive in our pending era of change and opportunity.”

The market sizing and forecast was conducted for both associations by IHS Markit. The forecast is based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s Economic Census, IMR and Polk data, and proprietary IHS Markit’s economic analysis and forecasting models.

“The sustained growth projected in the forecast is not only a result of key economic upswings, but also technology that is creating opportunities for new products, services and solutions across our market,” said Bill Hanvey, president and CEO of ACA. “These new technologies continue to widen the reach and scope of our industry as well as enable opportunities to add to the 4.6 million job powerhouse that we are.”

The Joint Channel Forecast Model is available at the AASA website,

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