KPI – December 2024: Consumer Trends
KPI – December 2024: State of Manufacturing
KPI – December 2024: State of Business – Automotive Industry
KPI – December 2024: State of the Economy
KPI – December 2024: Recent Vehicle Recalls
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased from 109.6 in October to 111.7 (1985=100) in November. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – increased by 4.8 points to 140.9.
Meanwhile, the Expectations Index – based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions – ticked up 0.4 points to 92.3, well above the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead.
Similarly, the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers is a survey consisting of approximately 50 core questions covering consumers’ assessments of their personal financial situation, buying attitudes and overall economic conditions. The Survey of Consumers registered 70.1 in September, 70.5 in October and 71.8 in November. The preliminary reading for December is 74.0 – its highest reading in seven months.
While confidence and sentiment are up, data shows consumers remain concerned about heightened living expenses, decreased savings, growing global conflict and unresolved social unrest. Despite various challenges, “We see spending patterns as being solid and consistent with the narrative that the consumer is on solid footing and with a strong labor market,” according to Jamie Dimon, CEO at JPMorgan Chase.
Looking ahead, the Congressional Budget Office forecasts real GDP to grow 1.9% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026 and 2027. Nationally, the seasonally adjusted Fiserv Small Business Index for November was 144, a 2-point decrease compared to October. Month-over-month sales (minus-1.6%) and transactions (plus-0.6%) held “relatively steady” following very strong growth a month prior. On a year-over-year basis, small business sales (plus-4.8%) and total transactions (plus-9.1%) increased significantly.
“Holiday sales are critical for small businesses, with restaurants and retailers in particular benefitting from consumers getting out and patronizing local establishments during the final months of the year,” says Prasanna Dhore, chief data officer at Fiserv. “Notably in November, food sales accelerated across both restaurant and grocery, while retail maintained the positive momentum from October, a significant increase when compared to 2023.”
Key takeaways, courtesy of Fiserv:
- Nationally, the Fiserv Small Business Index for Retail was 150, holding steady compared to October. Year-over-year sales (5.6%) and transactions (9.5%) grew and average ticket sizes (minus-3.8%) continued to decline. The fastest-growing retail categories year-over-year were Grocery (11.1), General Merchandise (11.0%), Clothing, Shoes and Jewelry Retailers (7.3%), as well as Furniture, Electronics and Appliances (6.8%).
- Food Services and Drinking Places, which includes restaurants, indexed at 131 in November, a 4-point increase compared to October. Restaurants posted year-over-year growth in both total sales (8.1%) and foot traffic (8.7%), while average ticket sizes continued to decline (minus-1.3%) compared to 2023.
- Service-based small business sales grew year-over-year (5.1%) but declined month-over-month (minus-1.8%), as consumers shifted more dollars to restaurants and retailers. On a yearly basis, the fastest growing service categories were Information Services (15%), Food Manufacturing (14.8%), Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (11.1%), as well as Truck Transportation (7.9%).
Most U.S. states posted small business sales growth year-over-year, with Nebraska (13.1%), Florida (11.5%), Alaska (11.4%), South Carolina (8.7%) and North Carolina (8%) making up the top five.
Similarly, The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose by 8 points in November. At 101.7, the reading broke a 34-month streak below the 50-year average of 98 and is the highest reading since June 2021. Of the 10 Optimism Index components, nine increased, none decreased, and one was unchanged.
“The election results signal a major shift in economic policy, leading to a surge in optimism among small business owners,” says Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB chief economist. “Main Street also became more certain about future business conditions following the election, breaking a nearly three-year streak of record-high uncertainty. Owners are particularly hopeful for tax and regulation policies that favor strong economic growth, as well as relief from inflationary pressures. In addition, small business owners are eager to expand their operations.”
Image Source: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
Professionals in the automotive, RV and powersports industries remain steadfast in their efforts to evolve their business models and grow their brands. As such, the monthly Key Performance Indicator Report serves as an objective wellness check on the overall health of our nation, from the state of manufacturing and vehicle sales to current economic conditions and consumer trends.
Below are a few key data points explained in further detail throughout the report.
Top takeaways:
- Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in November for the eighth consecutive month and the 24th time in the last 25 months, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business.
- In November, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis, following a 0.2% increase during the previous four months. Over the last 12 months, the all-items index increased 2.7% before seasonal adjustment.
- Total new-vehicle sales for November 2024, including retail and non-retail transactions, were projected to reach 1,361,200 – a 6.7% year-over-year increase on a selling day-adjusted basis, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData.
- Powersports Business says dealers across the country reported an overall combined revenue incline of 3.7% year-over-year in October, according to composite data from more than 1,700 dealerships in the U.S. that utilize CDK Lightspeed DMS. On average, dealerships were down 0.2% in parts but up 4.1% in major units and 3.8% in service.
Image Source: Powersports Business
