Fuel Outlook Report Predicts Lower Gas, Diesel Prices in 2024

Fuel savings platform GasBuddy, a PDI company, has released its annual Fuel Price Outlook with predictions of good news for drivers in the form of lower gasoline and diesel prices in 2024.

The outlook highlights key trends in gasoline and diesel prices, forecasting that, after two years of above-average gas prices, 2024 will see the yearly national average drop from $3.51 per gallon to $3.38.

Highlights from GasBuddy’s 2024 Fuel Outlook:

• Gas prices still could fall below a national average of $3 per gallon this winter before potentially rising, getting close to $4 per gallon as summer approaches.
• Drivers in some West Coast cities could again briefly see prices above $6 per gallon, although most major U.S. cities will see prices peak near $4 per gallon in 2024.
• Americans are expected to spend a combined $446.9 billion on gasoline in 2024. Average yearly spending per household will fall to an estimated $2,407, down 2% from 2023 and more than 12% from 2022.
• Electric vehicles (EVs) and the 2024 presidential election have the potential to impact fuel prices in the year ahead, with a potential slowdown in the EV transition at stake.
• Memorial Day will be the priciest 2024 holiday at the pump, with the national average price of gasoline expected to be $3.56-$4.04 per gallon on the holiday.

“As 2023 fades away, I’m hopeful those $5 and $6 prices for gasoline and diesel will also fade into memory,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy. “The global refining picture continues to improve, providing more capacity and peace of mind that record-setting prices will stay away from the pump in 2024. I anticipate that we’ll still have some volatility, unexpected outages and disruptions, and potentially weather-related issues, but I do not expect it to lead to record prices.”

Offsetting OPEC+’s production cuts is contributing to the rise of U.S. oil production, which now stands at record levels, De Haan continued.

“Combined with Canada, North American oil production could further stabilize countries that have decided to curb oil production,” he said.

The outlook forecasts the highest prices will be seen at the peak of the summer driving season in May, with the national average potentially rising as high as $3.89 per gallon. More uncertainty is expected with hurricane season in late summer.

Diesel prices are also predicted to fall incrementally from 2023, peaking at $4.13 per gallon in March 2024.