KPI — October 2021: State of the Economy

The Conference Board forecasts U.S. real GDP growth will slow to 3.5% (annualized rate) in Q3 2021, compared to 6.7% growth in Q2 2021. Furthermore, the 2021 annual growth estimate was revised to 5.7% (year-over-year), a downgrade from last month’s outlook. Looking ahead, the Conference Board projects the economy will grow by 3.8% (year-over-year) in 2022 and 3% (year-over-year) in 2023.

Important Takeaways, Courtesy of The Conference Board:

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased for the sixth consecutive month in August, though the rate of increase has fallen. The index now stands at 110.37, up from 109.89 in July.

COVID-19 infection rates and labor market challenges pose serious threats to employment growth. According to a survey of the National Federation of Independent Business, 50% of small employers reported difficulty filling positions in August, an all-time high accompanied by rapidly rising wages.

Employment

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 194,000 in September, compared to a forecast of 500,000. Record high job leaver statistics combined with burdensome mandates and the highest inflation in nearly 13 years has some politicians blaming failed economic policy.

Though the current jobs report fell short of expectations, the Administration points to positive growth in private-sector jobs – at plus 317,000. Moreover, the unemployment rate fell by .4 percentage point to 4.8%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

 

According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the increase in personal income during August primarily reflected increases in compensation of employees and government social benefits. Personal income increased $35.5 billion (.2%); disposable personal income (DPI) increased $18.9 billion (.1%); and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $130.5 billion (.8%). Personal outlays increased $132.6 billion, while personal saving registered $1.71 trillion and the personal saving rate – personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income – was 9.4%.

Important Takeaways, Courtesy of the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, real average hourly earnings for all employees increased .2% from August to September, seasonally adjusted. This results from an increase of .6% in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of .4% in the  Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U). Real average weekly earnings increased .8% month-over-month due to the change in real average hourly earnings combined with an increase of .6% in the average workweek. Real average hourly earnings decreased .8%, seasonally adjusted, from September 2020 to September 2021. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with no change in the average workweek resulted in a .8% decrease in real average weekly earnings over this period.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, real average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory employees increased .2% from August to September, seasonally adjusted. This results from a .5% increase in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of .4% in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). Real average weekly earnings increased .4% over the month due to the change in real average hourly earnings combined with an increase of .3% in average weekly hours. From September 2020 to September 2021, real average hourly earnings decreased .4%, seasonally adjusted. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with a .3% increase in the average workweek resulted in a .1% decrease in real average weekly earnings over this period.

By Demographic

Unemployment rates among the major worker groups: adult women – 4.2%; adult men – 4.7%; teenagers – 11.5%; Asians – 4.2%; Whites – 4.2%; Hispanics – 6.3%; and Blacks – 7.9%.

Image Source: Civilian unemployment rate (bls.gov)

By Industry

Nonfarm employment has increased by 17.4 million since April 2020 but remains down by 5 million, or 3.3%, compared to pre-pandemic levels.

This month, notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, retail trade, transportation and warehousing.

Important Takeaways, Courtesy of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Review all employment statistics here.

KPI — October 2021: Consumer Trends

Key Performance Indicators Report — October 2021

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