KPI — May 2021: State of the Economy

The Conference Board forecasts U.S. real GDP growth at 5% (annualized rate) in Q1 2021* and 6% year-over-year in 2021.*

Economic recovery strengthened during March. “We expect real GDP growth to accelerate further over the coming quarters as new COVID-19 infection rates decline further, the vaccination program continues to expand and a large fiscal support program is fully deployed. Following a robust recovery in 2021, we forecast economic growth of 3.5% year-over-year in 2022,” according to The Conference Board.

All data and analysis are courtesy of The Conference Board.

The Conference Board generated three potential recovery scenarios based on specific sets of assumptions:

Employment

Total nonfarm payroll employment added 266,000 jobs in April, compared to 770,000 in March and 536,000 in February. Coming in well below expectations, April is the weakest month of job growth since January 2021, as reported by NPR.

The national unemployment rate currently stands at 6.1%, slightly higher than last month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. While unemployment is down considerably from its recent high in April 2020, it remains 3.5 percentage points higher than pre-pandemic levels.

Important to note, the increase in personal income in March largely reflected an increase in government social benefits. Within government social benefits, “other” social benefits increased. The American Rescue Plan Act established an additional round of direct economic impact payments to households.

Important Takeaways, Courtesy of the Bureau of Labor Statistics

Real average hourly earnings for all private nonfarm employees increased 1.5% from March 2020 to March 2021. The increase in real average hourly earnings combined with a 2.3% increase in the average work week resulted in a 3.9% increase in real average weekly earnings over the year, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. The large employment fluctuations over the past year – especially in industries with lower-paid workers – complicate the analysis of recent trends in real earnings.

By Demographic

Unemployment rates among all major worker groups in April: *adult men – 6.1%, adult women – 5.6%, teenagers – 12.3%, Whites – 5.3%, Asians – 5.7%, Hispanics – 7.9% and *Blacks – 9.7%.

Unemployment rates among all major worker groups in March: adult men—5.8%, adult women—5.7%, teenagers—13%, Whites—5.4%, Asians—6%, Hispanics—7.9% and Blacks—9.6%.

*Indicates a month-over-month increase.

Median weekly earnings of the nation’s 112.1 million full-time wage and salary workers were $989 in the first quarter of 2021, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Women reported median weekly earnings of $900, or 82.6% of the $1,089 median for men. Full-time workers in management, business and financial operations occupations posted the highest median weekly earnings—$1,741 for men and $1,261 for women. Men and women employed in farming, fishing and forestry jobs had the lowest median weekly earnings in the first quarter of 2021, at $596 and $499, respectively. The ratio of women’s earnings to men’s earnings was highest in installation, maintenance and repair occupations (91.7%).

By Industry

Nonfarm employment is down by 8.2 million in April, or 5.4% compared to pre-pandemic levels in February 2020.

Important to note: The April Employment Situation Summary presents a snapshot of job gains per industry alongside comparison data that illustrates how said job gains stack up against pre-pandemic levels.

April’s increase was driven by the leisure and hospitality industry, which posted 331,000 jobs mostly in food services and drinking places (+187,000). However, overall, the sector still reports 2.8 million fewer jobs than pre-pandemic, indicating the jobs created were not “new” but rather pre-existing positions that had been vacated as a result of COVID restrictions. Small gains were also made in other areas, including repair and maintenance services (+14,000), personal and laundry services (+14,000) and child daycare services (+14,000).

The federal government added 9,000 new jobs over the month as well, though the report fails to compare these numbers to pre-pandemic levels like other categories. Therefore, it is difficult to infer whether or not these positions are brand-new or rehires, or whether they are temporary jobs (i.e., census workers) or pensioned positions (i.e. post office employees).

With total nonfarm payroll employment falling way below leading economists’ forecasts (266,000 vs a predicted one million), such information is necessary for critical analysis. While Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen may say, “One should never take one month’s data as an underlying trend,” economists are significantly less upbeat about the numbers.

But given the robust expectations of over a million jobs gained, “It’s hard to label this anything but a disappointment,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at the consulting firm RSM.

“The labor market needs to gain 8.2 million jobs to put us back where we were pre-pandemic, not accounting for the jobs that would have been created if the pandemic never happened. Every month job gains don’t accelerate puts us further behind,” explained Nick Bunker, economic research director at Indeed Hiring Lab.

Additionally, some state legislators are taking aggressive measures to combat, what they feel, is the underlying contributor: unprecedented social benefits incentivizing extended unemployment – a position supported by an increase in personal income that points to social benefits as the driver and a rise, albeit small, in national unemployment despite 7.4 million job openings (most recent figure until May 11).

Montana and South Carolina are slated to end federal pandemic employment benefits, stating “enhanced jobless programs are dissuading people from returning to the workforce and are creating labor shortages,” according to CNN.

“The move, which may be replicated in other states as the economy springs back to life amid declining coronavirus cases, is necessary to address Montana’s ‘severe worker shortage,'” said Gov. Greg Gianforte.

Important Takeaways, Courtesy of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

KPI — May 2021: Consumer Trends

Key Performance Indicators Report — May 2021

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