According to the report, the automotive aftermarket continues to be impacted by shifts in the industry and overall economy. The report found the following, summarized by SEMA officials:
Specialty-Equipment Industry Outlook
Sales for specialty-equipment parts are projected to have slowed in 2022, growing only 2% to $51.75 billion. Barring any significant economic disruption, industry sales growth should normalize in 2023 and return to the 3-4% growth seen during typical years.
Vehicle Trends Outlook
New-vehicle sales finished at 13.7 million units in 2022, roughly 1.2 million units below 2021 levels. Due to supply shortages, high prices and rising interest rates, it will likely take until 2025 before things return to pre-pandemic levels.
The prices of new vehicles are exceptionally high, hitting a record $49,507 in December 2022. Prices should soften over the next year, as supply-chain issues ease and sales soften.
U.S. Economic Outlook
Inflation hit record levels in 2022 but has peaked and is starting to lower. SEMA estimates that inflation will continue to go down in 2023. By the end of 2023, it should normalize back to around 2% per year. Similarly, costs for producers are expected to go down in 2023.
Unemployment in Q4 2022 hit 3.6% — its lowest level since the late 1960s. As the economy slows down in 2023, there will likely be an uptick in unemployment. It should improve again in 2024.
Supply-Chain Disruption
Ninety percent of industry companies say they were moderately or severely impacted by supply-chain issues over the last year.
The chip shortage is ongoing, but lead times are improving. As of October 2022, the lead delivery time for a chip was 25.5 weeks—down from its peak. However, supplies of chips for automobiles remain tight and constrained.
Click here to download the complete report.
The report will also be the subject of the webinar “SEMA Future Trends: Outlook for 2023 and Beyond,” scheduled for Feb. 2 at 11:00 a.m. PST. Register for the webinar here.
