A new study from Work Truck Solutions shows that, in a year shadowed by regulatory uncertainty, the commercial vehicle industry has defied expectations. This year’s analysis offers a detailed account of a year that saw increased new commercial vehicle sales in a market that remains dynamic and resilient amid challenges.

Work Truck Solutions’ 2024 Annual Commercial Vehicle Market Analysis paints a nuanced picture of the commercial vehicle market’s current landscape and trajectory. At the top of the list is the flatlining of new vehicle prices. Despite various market dynamics, the cost to purchase new vehicles has remained consistent, reflecting a period of stability amidst fluctuating economic conditions, according to the report.

Also noteworthy is the increase in the availability of new vehicles. This uptick suggests that manufacturers have addressed previous supply chain bottlenecks, resulting in a replenished stock of commercial vehicles.

“Right now, the commercial vehicle business is where F&I was for dealers 10 or 12 years ago; not all dealers were in it. They weren’t depending on F&I for profit,” explains Jim Press, former COO of Toyota North America, and current senior advisor for Work Truck Solutions. “Now, they’re beginning to see that commercial business is the next big income producer, because it provides revenue, multiple sales and increased fixed operations. This is a time for dealers to embrace technology to increase their profit margins, their customer retention and penetration of the commercial business in their market area.”

The report does show that these positive developments come with a twist: the Days To Turn (DTT)—the time it takes for a vehicle to be sold once on-lot—has also increased. In what may seem counterintuitive against the backdrop of increased DTT, sales of new commercial vehicles have actually surged.

This suggests that, despite a longer dwell time on dealers’ lots, the demand for commercial vehicles is robust and that competition for commercial customers is heating up.

“The commercial vehicle market continues to see demand for work trucks and vans, with many commercial dealers looking to level up their digital presence and maximize online merchandising tools,” said Aaron Johnson, Work Truck Solutions CEO. “For those previously focused only on the retail market, it’s a time to look at the B2B sector as an opportunity and a path to another revenue stream, and one that’s quite strong.”

NEW COMMERCIAL VEHICLES IN 2024

Movement, or sales, of new vehicles increased appreciably, up 19.4% quarter over quarter and 14.2% year over year.
Average new vehicle prices were flat, with virtually no change QoQ, and a 1.1% increase YoY.
On-lot per dealer work truck inventory continued to grow, up 8.9% QoQ and a significant 33.1% YoY.
Average DTT for new vehicles continued climbing with a 5.3% QoQ increase and a rise of 62.9% YoY.

USED COMMERCIAL VEHICLES IN 2024

Sales increased 1.3% in Q4, but decreased 2.6% YoY.
Median mileage of used work trucks and vans rose 3.7% QoQ and 9.4% YoY.
Average used vehicle prices decreased 3.9% QoQ and 10.8% YoY.
On-lot Inventory remains the same QoQ, but is down 10.8% YoY.
Average DTT decreased by 3.5% QoQ and showed an 11.4% drop YoY.

Although new vehicle sales are improving, it’s still too early in the vehicle lifecycle for used vehicle on-lot inventory to be increased by trade-ins, the report noted. It’s likely that it will be some time before used on-lot numbers begin to rise.

For commercial vehicle shoppers, the overall new vehicle trends suggest that the availability and prices of used inventory will continue to decline in 2025.

COMMERCIAL BATTERY ELECTRIC VEHICLES (BEVS) IN 2024

In the alt-fuel category, data has become statistically relevant, and Work Truck Solutions shares its fledgling BEV data from 2024.

Average new commercial BEV prices increased 2.3% QoQ, but fell by 8.6% YoY.
Average used commercial BEV prices fell by 1.3% QoQ and 21.6% YoY.

“The commercial BEV sector is still in the relatively early stages,” said Johnson. “Many businesses have been struggling with fleet plans as they continue to monitor technological advancements, infrastructure development and recent election results. However, we have seen growth in the alt-fuel commercial vehicle segment, which is also why we recently launched the CEV Hub with tools for business to assess their potential for transition to BEVs.”