Cox Automotive’s February forecast showed new-vehicle sales are expected to make gains over last year and improve from January. Sales volume this month is expected to reach 1.22 million units, an increase of 6.3% over February 2023, when the market was still recovering from severe product shortages.
The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), or selling pace, is expected to finish near 15.4 million, up 0.5 million over last year’s pace and an improvement over January’s surprisingly low 15.0 million level. The SAAR has averaged 15.5 million over the last six months, and the expectation is that sales this month will return closer to that trend after falling off in January.
There are also 25 selling days this February, one more than last year, which will also lift February’s sales totals.
“January and February are slow months for vehicle sales, but the new-vehicle sales pace this past January saw a surprising decline from December. Bad weather was a likely contributor and kept shoppers away from dealership lots,” said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive. “However, the weather this February was particularly mild across much of the country, so a bit of a rebound is expected this month. We are also seeing solid inventory levels and growing incentives and discounts, which should help sales volume.”
Key Takeaways:
- The seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) for new vehicles in February is forecast to increase from January and finish near 15.4 million.
- The sales pace in February is expected to be higher by 0.5 million from last February’s 14.9 million pace and up from January’s 15.0 million level.
- February’s new-vehicle sales volume is forecast to rise 6.3% year over year and reach 1.22 million units.
