- KPI – October 2025: The Brief
- KPI – October 2025: Recent Vehicle Recalls
- KPI – October 2025: State of Business – Automotive Industry
- KPI – October 2025: State of Manufacturing
- KPI – October 2025: Consumer Trends
In September, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3% on a seasonally-adjusted basis after rising 0.4% in August, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all-items index increased 3% before seasonal adjustment.
Important Takeaways, Courtesy of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:
- The index for gasoline rose 4.1% and was the largest factor in the all-items monthly increase, with the index for energy rising 1.5%. The food index increased 0.2%, as the food-at-home index rose 0.3% and the food-away-from-home index increased 0.1%.
- Indexes on the rise include shelter, airline fares, recreation, household furnishings and operations, as well as apparel. The indexes for motor vehicle insurance, used cars and trucks, plus communication, were among the few major indexes to decrease month-over-month.
Overall, the all-items index rose 3% year-over-year, after rising 2.9% last month. The all-items-less-food-and-energy index also increased 3% over the same period. The energy index increased 2.8%, while the food index climbed 3.1%.
Employment
With the federal government shutdown, current reporting is on pause; however, complementary reporting suggests similar data patterns over the past month. The Dow Jones forecast estimated growth of 51,000 in nonfarm payrolls, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%.
According to CNBC, “high-frequency data like job postings, private payrolls and state-by-state figures for initial jobless claims indicate that while employment growth continues to be anemic, the labor market overall isn’t capsizing—at least not anytime soon.”
Austan Goolsbee, Chicago Federal Reserve president, says it is important to “fight with the army you have” in moments like these. Thus far, he says limited data points to a “pretty stable labor market.”
That said, other non-governmental data supports overall market softening, with job availability gradually shrinking. Regardless, employers seem reluctant to part with workers given critical lessons from the COVID pandemic, when a rash of layoffs in the early stages was followed by the monumental task of refilling those jobs, according to CNBC reports.
“A lot of the new entrants in the market—young workers, recent graduates, people who are already unemployed—[are] having a hard time getting into the market,” says Cory Stahle, senior economist at Indeed. “Regardless of what the unemployment rate is, people taking longer to find jobs is a sign of some economic distress for some households.”
Note: Due to the U.S. federal government shutdown, important data is delayed. Full KPI reporting will resume upon new data release.
Last Month’s Data
Total nonfarm payroll employment gained 22,000 in August—below Dow Jones’ forecast of 75,000. June totals were revised down 13,000, while July gains were adjusted +6,000. A job boost in health care was partially offset by losses in the federal government, as well as mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate and number of unemployed persons edged up to 4.3% and 7.4 million, respectively. In addition, the labor force participation and long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) rates registered 62.3% and 25.7%, respectively.
“The job market is stalling short of the runway,” says Daniel Zhao, chief economist at jobs site Glassdoor. “The labor market is losing lift, and August’s report, along with downward revisions, suggests we’re heading into turbulence without the soft landing achieved.”
While hiring was slow, stocks were up and average hourly earnings increased 0.3% for the month, meeting the estimate—though the annual gain of 3.7% was slightly below the forecast for 3.8%, according to CNBC.
Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, expressed a slightly different perspective, stating the August jobs report “just about strikes a balance between reinforcing market expectations for a sequence of Fed rate cuts and not yet inviting renewed concerns around recession, so the broad market response should be mildly positive.”
Though she agrees, concerns about the health of the economy are starting to creep in. “[Any] further deterioration in the labor market would soon tip the balance to ‘bad news is simply bad news,’” she continues. “Equally, a strong inflation print could strike new fears about a stagflationary mix.”
By Demographic
This month, unemployment rates among the major worker groups: adult women – 3.8%; adult men – 4.1%; teenagers – 13.9%; Asians – 3.6%; Whites – 3.7%; Hispanics – 5.3%; and Blacks – 7.5%.
Last month, unemployment rates among the major worker groups: adult women – 3.7%; adult men – 4%; teenagers – 15.2%; Asians – 3.9%; Whites – 3.7%; Hispanics – 5%; and Blacks – 7.2%.
