State of the Economy

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis, following the same increase in July and August, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all-items index increased 2.4% before seasonal adjustment.

Important Takeaways, Courtesy of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

The indexes for shelter and food increased 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively, in September. Together, the two indexes contributed over 75% of the monthly all-items increase. The food-at-home index increased 0.4% in September, while the food-away-from-home index rose 0.3% month-over-month. The energy index fell 1.9%, after declining 0.8% the preceding month.
Indexes on the rise include shelter, airline fares, motor vehicle insurance, education and apparel. The indexes for used cars and trucks, household furnishings and operations, medical care, communication, as well as recreation decreased month-over-month.

The all-items index rose 2.4% year-over-year, the smallest 12-month increase since February 2021. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.3%, while the energy index decreased 6.8%

Caption: While economic experts say inflation is “cooling,” consumers are still wrestling stubbornly high prices at the grocery store and gas pump. Click here for recent data detailing sky-high increases since November 2020.

A recent survey conducted by R.R. Donnelley & Sons Company (RRD) determined 88% of consumers express frustration with rising prices across multiple categories, including groceries, gas and restaurants. According to survey report details, price sensitivity continues to be a universal focus shared across all age groups and income levels, with 87% of baby boomers and 79% of households with $100K+ income expressing concern or frustration over food and beverage prices.

Survey data shows “consumers across key demographic groups have reached a breaking point,” and are shifting their shopping habits accordingly – prioritizing value over brand loyalty, favoring less expensive alternatives, hunting for bargains and avoiding products considered too costly.

“Consumers are becoming more judicious with their purchasing decisions, in large part due to the continued impact of external factors, including inflation,” says Beth Johnson, grocery industry expert and director of client strategy at RRD. “These factors are testing the loyalty of shoppers, making it more important than ever for marketers to rethink how they engage with buyers. Brands will need to meet shoppers where they are by emphasizing value and savings to hold their attention.”

Employment

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 254,000 in September, well above the industry estimate of 150,000. The unemployment rate and number of unemployed persons ticked down to 4.1% and 6.8 million, respectively.

“Today’s report put an exclamation point on this week’s strong jobs data – an upside surprise across the board,” says Chris Larkin, managing director of trading and investing at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. “Based on this data, not only is the jobs market not falling off a cliff, it doesn’t appear to be anywhere near the edge.”

Moreover, “This solid report increases the odds that the economy will continue to grow above trend in the next quarter,” adds LPL Financial chief economist Jeffrey Roach. “Our base case i

KPI – October 2024: State of the Economy

By Pat Curtin