Global Light Vehicle Sales

In September, the Global Light Vehicle (LV) selling rate registered 90 million units per year. Market volumes continued to trend downward, with year-over-year sales dipping 4%. Furthermore, year-to-date sales are only “up fractionally” compared to the same period last year.

According to GlobalData, performance was down across most regions. In China, sales dropped 5% year-over-year, despite the ongoing scrappage incentive. Sales remained “underwhelming” in the U.S. and Western Europe, with weak economies and high vehicle prices applying pressure to light-vehicle market activity.

“The 2024 forecast for global light-vehicle sales has been revised down for the fourth time this year, from 89.3 million units at the beginning of the year to 88.5 million units this month, a reduction of 1%. Growth from 2023 has now settled at 2%. The primary factors influencing demand trends remain elevated pricing, geopolitical risks and global economic performance,” says Jeff Schuster, vice president of automotive research at GlobalData.

Caption: Market Lines is now excluding exports from the China sales total. The adjustment has been backdated to 2018.

U.S. New Vehicle Sales

According to Cox Automotive, new vehicle sales registered 1.17 million in September, down 12.8% year-over-year but tracking alongside a forecast of 1.19 million. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) was 15.8 million – just shy of projections, though “a healthy gain” compared to last month’s 15.3 million pace.

In general, Cox Automotive strategists say the U.S. new vehicle market continues to underperform. Sales at the end of Q3 were up compared to last year; however, considering the industry’s improved inventory levels and higher incentives, industry professionals expected greater sales volumes.

“Overall, sales volume and sales pace through the first nine months is up just a little from last year, less than 1%. We expect sales to continue to show mild improvement, and our forecast for the full year remains unchanged at 15.7 million vehicle sales,” says Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist. “Recent interest rate cuts will have a positive impact on borrowing costs, and sales should see support as uncertainty around the election and monetary policy fades away by year’s end.”

In September, U.S. sales at Ford Motor Company decreased 11% to 147,831 units.

U.S. Used Market

Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage- and seasonally-adjusted basis) increased 0.3% from September during the first 15 days of October. The mid-month Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index increased to 203.5, down 2.8% from the full month of October 2023.

“We have maintained the belief that wholesale depreciation will be a bit muted in the future, and that’s what we are seeing in the first 15 days of October,” says Jeremy Robb, senior director of economic and insights at Cox Automotive. “October typically brings the highest monthly depreciation rates for non-seasonally adjusted values of the year. While values have declined, they are down slightly less than we usually see at this time in the month.”

According to Manheim, all major market segments posted seasonally-adjusted prices that remained lower year-over-year during the first half of October, albeit the declines were less compared to earlier in the year. For example, compact and mid-size, luxury, SUV and pickup segments decreased 2.2%, 2.3%, 2.9%, 3.5% and 5.6%, respectively. Meanwhile, segment results were mixed on a month-over-month basis. Compact and mid-size, as well as the pickup segment, increased by 1.4%, 1.2% and .5%, respectively. On the contrary, SUV, luxury and EV were down .5%, 1.2% and 12.4%, respectively.

KPI – October 2024: State of Business

By Pat Curtin