KPI – November 2024: The Brief
KPI – November 2024: State of Manufacturing
KPI – November 2024: Consumer Trends
KPI – November 2024: State of the Economy
KPI – November 2024: Recent Vehicle Recalls
GLOBAL LIGHT VEHICLE SALES
In October, the Global Light Vehicle (LV) selling rate registered 93 million units per year, a month-over-month improvement. Data shows market volumes rebounded in comparison to the previous months’ downward trend – up 6% year-over-year. Meanwhile, year-to-date sales posted a slight 1% increase.
In China, sales swelled 5% year-over-year, as the domestic market saw a modest recovery driven by subsidies and the ongoing price war. In the U.S., sales grew nearly 12% month-over-month, attributed to additional selling days and new model releases.
Sales in Western Europe remained broadly flat, as the region continues to experience significant political and economic headwinds.
“As global light-vehicle sales show signs of stabilizing, some of the acceleration previously expected in the fourth quarter has been tempered. The 2024 forecast now stands at 88 million units, down by 500,000 from the previous month, with revisions made for China, Western Europe and the U.S. The increase from 2023 is now projected at 1.4% due to existing risk factors,” says Jeff Schuster, vice president of automotive research at GlobalData. “Growth is still anticipated to pick up in 2025, as pricing moderates and economic risks are expected to diminish. The forecast for 2025 is 91.1 million units, representing a 3.5% increase from 2024.”
Market Lines is now excluding exports from the China sales total. The adjustment has been backdated to 2018.
U.S. NEW VEHICLE SALES
Total new-vehicle sales for October 2024, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,327,600 – a 2.1% year-over-year increase on a selling day-adjusted basis, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData.
Takeaways, courtesy of JD Power:
- Retail buyers are on pace to spend $48.3 billion on new vehicles, up $5.1 billion year-over-year.
- Trucks/SUVs are estimated to account for 78.3% of new vehicle retail sales in October.
- The average new vehicle retail transaction price is expected to reach $44,904, down $739 year-over-year.
- Average incentive spending per unit is expected to reach $3,149, up $1,302 year-over-year.
- Total retailer profit per unit, which includes vehicle gross plus finance and insurance income, is expected to be $2,245 – down 27.3% year-over-year.
- Fleet sales are projected to total 190,872 units in October, down 15.6% year-over-year. Fleet volume is expected to account for 14.4% of total light-vehicle sales, down 3 percentage points from a year ago.
- Average interest rates for new-vehicle loans are expected to be 6.7%, down 68 basis points from a year ago.
“November traditionally marks the beginning of the holiday sales event season for the automotive industry. This period often sees a focus on premium vehicles, accompanied by manufacturer-backed lease incentives and pricing discounts. As the number of leases expiring in November and December is projected to be nearly 40% lower than the same period a year ago, this holiday season may require innovative strategies to entice customers into acquiring a new vehicle,” King says.
U.S. USED MARKET
Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage- and seasonally adjusted basis) increased 1.6% from October during the first 15 days of November. The mid-month Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index increased to 206.1 and is now showing a gain of 0.5% from the full month of November 2023.
“Supply for both wholesale and retail used-vehicle markets has continued to decline over the last month,” says Jeremy Robb, senior director of economic and insights at Cox Automotive. “With sales conversion moving higher for six weeks in a row, it’s not surprising to see strength in wholesale prices in early November. Typically, November shows relatively small declines in values month-to-month but, so far, we’ve seen prices increase for both seasonally adjusted values, as well as non-seasonally adjusted prices. Retail used-vehicle sales have increased for five consecutive weeks as well, and that should keep dealer demand for wholesale units elevated in coming weeks.”
According to Manheim, all major market segments posted mixed results for seasonally adjusted prices year-over-year during the first half of November. Mid-size cars rose by 1%, while compact, luxury and pickup vehicles decreased 0.3%, 1.5% and 2% year-over-year, respectively.
Electric vehicles (EVs) showed high depreciation levels, down 11% year-over-year, while the non-EV segment displayed an increase of 0.2% over the same period.
Compared to the end of October, however, each segment posted a rise in values. SUVs were up 1.7%, while mid-size and luxury vehicles rose by 1.6%. Compact cars increased 1.2% and pickups were up 0.9%. EVs increased 0.6% month-over-month in the first half of November, while non-EVs were up 1.6%.
