KPI — March 2021: State of the Economy

The Conference Board revised its real GDP projection, forecasting a 2% increase (annualized rate) in Q1 2021 and 4.4% year-over-year growth.*

“Following a lull in the economic recovery during recent months, we expect the pace of the rebound to reaccelerate as new COVID-19 infection rates decline, the vaccination program expands and the prospects of another large fiscal support program improve. We expect the recovery to continue into next year and forecast growth of 3.1% year-over-year growth in 2022,” according to the company.

The Conference Board has generated three potential recovery scenarios based on specific sets of assumptions.

All data and analysis are courtesy of The Conference Board.

 

* The Conference Board is upgrading its forecast of Q2 2021 real GDP growth from 3.6% (annualized rate) to 4.7% (annualized rate). This upgrade is due to our expectation that the U.S. government approves $1.5 trillion in fiscal support in March. Subsequent quarters are also positively impacted by the package.

 

Employment

Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in January (+49,000), with unemployment registering 6.3%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The number of employed persons is 10.1 million.

 

“The decline in payroll employment reflects the recent increase in coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and efforts to contain the pandemic,” explained the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Other takeaways, courtesy of the Bureau’s recent reporting:

 

Real average hourly earnings increased 4%, seasonally adjusted, from January 2020 to January 2021. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 2% in the average workweek resulted in a 6.1% increase in real average weekly earnings over this period.

 

From January 2020 to January 2021, real average hourly earnings increased 3.8%, seasonally adjusted. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with a 2.4% increase in the average workweek resulted in a 6.3% increase in real average weekly earnings over this period.

By Demographic

Unemployment rates among all major worker groups in January: adult men and adult women—6%, teenagers—14.8%, Whites—5.7%, Asians—6.6%, Hispanics—8.6% and Blacks—9.2%.

Median weekly earnings of the nation’s 111.5 million full-time wage and salary workers were $984 in the fourth quarter of 2020. Median weekly earnings for women were $894, or 83.4% of the median of $1,072 for men.

By Industry

In December, total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 140,000—following an increase of 245,000 a month prior. Those figures are little changed during January (+49,000), with unemployment hovering around 6.3%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

During this reporting period, notable job gains in professional and business services and public and private education were offset by losses in leisure and hospitality, retail trade, health care, as well as transportation and warehousing.

Important employment takeaways, courtesy of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

*Review current housing market data.

Click here for more detailed employment information by industry.

*All February references are 2020.

Key Performance Indicators Report — March 2021
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