- KPI – August 2025: The Brief
- KPI – August 2025: State of Manufacturing
- KPI – August 2025: State of Business – Automotive Industry
- KPI – August 2025: Consumer Trends
- KPI – August 2025: Recent Vehicle Recalls
In July, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2% on a seasonally-adjusted basis after rising 0.3% in June, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all-items index increased 2.7% before seasonal adjustment.
Important Takeaways, Courtesy of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:
- The index for shelter rose 0.2% and was the primary factor in the all-items monthly increase. The food index was unchanged month-over-month, as the food-away-from-home index rose 0.3% but the food-at-home index fell 0.1%. In contrast, the index for energy fell 1.1%, with the index for gasoline decreasing 2.2% over the month.
- Indexes on the rise include medical care, airline fares, recreation, household furnishings and operations, as well as used cars and trucks. The indexes for lodging away from home and communication were among the few major indexes to decrease.
Overall, the all-items index rose 2.7% year-over-year. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.1% year-over-year. The energy index decreased 1.6%, while the food index increased 2.9% over the last year.
Employment
Total nonfarm payroll employment was relatively unchanged in July, at 73,000—below the Dow Jones estimate of 100,000. May and June totals were revised significantly lower, down by a combined 258,000 from previously announced levels. Employment trended up in health care and in social assistance, while the federal government continued to shed jobs.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate and number of unemployed persons edged up to 4.2% and 7.2 million, respectively. In addition, the labor force participation and long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) rates registered 62.2% and 24.9%, respectively.
“While the labor market is not in crisis, hiring momentum continues to soften and pressures are beginning to build,” says Ger Doyle, North America regional president at Manpower Group.
According to Fox Business, the subpar jobs report is connected to elevated levels of economic uncertainty stemming from trade policy, including the impact of tariffs on inflation and consumer prices.
“What had looked like a Teflon labor market showed some scratches this morning, as tariffs continue to work their way through the economy,” says Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. “A Fed that still appeared hesitant to lower rates may see a clearer path to a September cut, especially if data over the next month confirms that trend.”
For Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo, global co-CIO of multi-asset solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, poor job growth in July, in combination with large revisions to previous gains, is a critical warning sign that the labor market is cooling and a U.S. slowdown is starting to take shape.
“Importantly, the underlying deterioration is grabbing our attention: cyclical employment has flatlined, while falling participation rates are somewhat masking unemployment weakness,” she explains. “While overall levels are not flashing red, the trend is cause for concern. This print is just one number in a week filled with important economic data releases, but the miss directly challenges the Fed’s hawkish posture from [a recent] FOMC meeting.”
By Demographic
This month, unemployment rates among the major worker groups: adult women – 3.7%; adult men – 4%; teenagers – 15.2%; Asians – 3.9%; Whites – 3.7%; Hispanics – 5%; and Blacks – 7.2%.
Last month, unemployment rates among the major worker groups: adult women – 3.6%; adult men – 3.9%; teenagers – 14.4%; Asians – 3.5%; Whites – 3.6%; Hispanics – 4.8%; and Blacks – 6.8%.
By Industry
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) declined to 107.55 in July, compared to an upwardly revised 108.19 in June. Data shows a dip in the Employment Trends Index was a result of negative contributions from four of its eight components: the Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find Jobs Hard to Get, the Percentage of Firms with Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now, the Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry, and the Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers.
“The ETI fell slightly in July to its lowest point since October 2024,” says Mitchell Barnes, economist at The Conference Board. “But the ETI has remained within a tight range for more than 12 months, supporting the narrative that the labor market remains stable overall, though risks may be growing.”
Caption: The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for payroll employment. When the Index increases, employment is likely to grow as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the Index indicate that a change in the trend of job gains or losses is about to occur in the coming months.
According to the ETI, initial claims for unemployment insurance (an ETI component) moderated in July following three consecutive monthly increases. The share of involuntary part-time workers edged up to 17.1%, compared to 16.5% in June; however, the ratio has declined since reaching 18% in February. Employment in the temporary-help industry decreased by 4,400 in July, falling six out of seven months in 2025.
“Companies have grown more hesitant amid tariff and policy uncertainty,” Barnes says. “But companies appear to be pressing pause rather than leaning into layoffs, given that unemployment and slack remain low.”
The share of consumers who report “jobs are hard to get”—an ETI component from the Consumer Confidence Survey—rose from 17.2% in June to 18.9% in July, the highest percentage since March 2021. Meanwhile, the share of small firms that report jobs are “not able to be filled right now” declined to 33% in July, compared to 36% in June—the highest share since January 2021. JOLTS job openings declined in June by 275,000, offsetting the rise from May, and were 4% below January levels.
“Each ETI reading in 2025 has been a mixed bag,” Barnes adds. “While overall metrics remain largely stable, underlying components have moderated from earlier this year.”
Important Takeaways, Courtesy of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:
- Health care added 55,000 jobs, above the average monthly gain of 42,000 during the prior 12 months. Over the month, job gains occurred in ambulatory health care services (+34,000) and hospitals (+16,000).
- Social assistance employment continued to trend up (+18,000), reflecting continued job growth in individual and family services (+21,000).
- Federal government employment continued to decline (-12,000)—now down by 84,000 since reaching a peak in January. (Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.)