The U.S. automotive aftermarket is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.6 percent through 2020, according to the 2017 Joint Channel Forecast Model produced jointly by the Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association (AASA) and the Auto Care Association.
The 2017 Joint Channel Forecast Model also predicts that the total aftermarket sales will grow from $277.1 billion in 2016 to $316.4 billion in 2020, an increase of nearly $39.3 billion over the four-year period.
“The forecast model demonstrates that despite strong new vehicle sales, moderating gas prices and improved miles driven are conditions conducive to continued steady growth,” said Bill Hanvey, Auto Care Association president and CEO. “Why? The average age of light vehicles, now up to 11.7 years is the oldest ever, and the age mix of vehicles continues to favor older vehicles with 48.5 percent of total light vehicles in the 11 year and older category therefore creating a robust opportunity for service and repair.”
“The pattern of continued growth in the aftermarket bears out the optimism among our supplier members and their customers-all companies are anticipating growth in 2017 and beyond,” said Bill Long, president and chief operating officer, AASA. “We are a large, steady and stable industry, but advanced technologies are challenging traditional assumptions and knowns regarding the aftermarket. Industry analysis such as the Joint Channel Forecast Model assist suppliers and channel partners in preparing for the transformation occurring in mobility.”
The market sizing and forecast is conducted on behalf of AASA and the Auto Care Association by IHS Markit, the world economic and market information firm. The forecast is based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s Economic Census, IMR and Polk data, and proprietary IHS Markit’s economic analysis and forecasting models.
The Joint Channel Forecast Model is available at the AASA website, www.aftermarketsuppliers.org, and in the Auto Care Association’s 2018 Digital Auto Care Factbook, available today at www.autocare.org/factbook18.